Cookbook: Supply Chain Disruption Analysis
A complete walkthrough from BOM data to disruption impact modeling.
This cookbook demonstrates how to model supply chain dependencies as a temporal graph to predict cascade effects when suppliers fail. We'll use synthetic Bill of Materials (BOM) and shipment data.
The Challenge
Modern supply chains are deep and interconnected. When a Tier-3 supplier in Asia experiences problems:
- The impact isn't immediate - it takes weeks to propagate
- Multiple products may be affected - shared components
- Alternative sourcing has lead times - can't just switch
- Static models don't capture timing - when will you feel it?
What we'll analyze:
- Multi-tier dependency mapping (who supplies your suppliers?)
- Disruption propagation simulation
- Time-to-impact calculations
- Critical path identification
The Data Model
Step 1: Generate Supply Chain Data
We'll create synthetic data representing a multi-tier electronics supply chain with realistic lead times.
Output:
Step 2: Build the Temporal Dependency Graph
Output:
Step 3: Simulate Disruption Propagation
When a Tier-3 supplier fails, trace the cascade through the network.
Output:
Critical Insight: A Tier-3 disruption today won't hit your factories for 84+ days. This gives you a response window - but only if you detect it early.
Step 4: Identify Critical Dependencies
Find "single points of failure" - suppliers that, if disrupted, impact everything.
Output:
Step 5: Find Alternative Sourcing Paths
When a primary supplier fails, identify backup routes.
Step 6: Generate Risk Report
Compile findings into an executive summary.
Summary
This cookbook demonstrated a complete supply chain risk analysis pipeline:
| Step | What We Did |
|---|---|
| 1. Model Data | Created multi-tier BOM with lead times |
| 2. Build Graph | Temporal dependency network |
| 3. Simulate Disruption | Traced cascade from Tier-3 to OEM |
| 4. Find Critical Nodes | Ranked suppliers by downstream impact |
| 5. Alternative Paths | Identified backup sourcing routes |
| 6. Generate Report | Executive risk summary |
Key temporal insights:
- Time-to-impact: Know exactly when a disruption will hit
- Lead time accumulation: Tier-3 delays compound through the chain
- Seasonal criticality: Some nodes only matter during peak demand
Next Steps
- Temporal Reachability – Path tracing algorithm
- PageRank Centrality – Find critical nodes
- Network Operations Cookbook – Similar dependency analysis